Do you really believe your candidate can't win?



Back in January of this year, I resolved that election politics would not take my dignity or my reason.  So far, so good.  That’s one New Year’s resolution kept.

This election “silly season” makes it hard, I must admit, but I am going to try to be rational, so please read on… 

I remember being told in my 8th grade civics class—I know; I am showing my age—that the United States has a “two-party” system of government.  We constantly hear about the need for “bi-partisan” action.

We have NEVER had a two party system.  In fact, political parties are not mentioned anywhere in the U.S. Constitution.  You would never know that if you only consider the stuff put out by the mainstream media, newspapers, radio pundits, and even the supposedly neutral polls that routinely do not offer alternative candidates to the Democrats’ and Republicans’. 
 
The media wisdom, if you can call it that, is that a third party candidate “can’t win”, that if you vote for one, your vote is “wasted”. Does the same apply if you vote for one of the two “regular” candidates and they lose?  Was your vote a waste? A thoughtful vote based on principle is never, ever, a waste.  You do have a choice. 

Let me carry this one step farther, and perhaps you will see that logically, mathematically, a third party vote is not necessarily a waste.  

The Constitution describes how the President is elected. He/she is not elected directly by popular vote and contrary to popular opinion (just ask Al Gore).  The President is elected by the Electoral College.  The number of state electors is defined in the Constitution as being the number of their congressional representatives, including their two senators.  That total is 538 members at this point. 

Now, let’s consider an election in which there were four candidates on the ballot.  Let’s say that the Republican, Democrat, Green and Libertarian candidates each get an unlikely, but possible, equal share of those electors, because their supporters did not buy the idea that their candidate can't win.  That means that each candidate would get 134 electors, with two more in the offing.  

The Constitution, in Article 2, Section 1, states that the candidate who receives a majority of the electors becomes President.  Not a “super majority” or any such rubbish, nor a plurality or any other word we use to describe a proportion of votes.  A majority is the candidate who gets one more vote than the others.
In my admittedly highly unlikely, but possible, scenario, the candidate who got that extra 2 votes would become President with 136 votes. 
  
I know that I am simplifying things. There is a little more to the process, I know.

Now, allow me to point out that the establishment parties both regard states strategically, concentrating resources on states that have more electors, so they already grasp the significance of what I am going to say. 

Florida has 29 electors.  California 55.  My state of Pennsylvania has 20. New York has 29, and Texas 38.   That is 5 states, for a total of 171 electors.  Just five states.  The winner in my scenario only needs 136

So, in the same scenario,  let’s say that the third party wins Texas (38), Ohio (18),  Pennsylvania (20), Illinois (20), Michigan (16), Arizona (11) New Mexico (5), and Wyoming (3) and Louisiana (8) for a total of 139.   Just 9 states.  

Back to the notion that a third party candidate “can’t win” and that a vote for them is “wasted."   Do you still think so?  If so, then I respect your right to an opinion and am grateful for your attention to mine. I wish you all the blessings that Liberty allows.

Now, for those of you who are now questioning what the political establishment and media would have you believe, here are a couple websites to visit before you settle for a Democrat or a Republican.

For more info on Libertarian Gary Johnson, https://www.lp.org/

For more on Green Party candidate Jill Stein, http://www.gp.org/

Those are announced candidates. Write-ins are always possible, so Bernie Sanders’ supporters might consider just that.  Visit https://go.berniesanders.com/page/content/splash

A thoughtful, reasoned, and above all informed vote, cast in line with one’s beliefs and principles is never, ever, wasted, no matter what Clinton’s or Trump’s acolytes may say, no matter what the media “reports”.  

A vote not cast, however, is a waste.

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